nairiporter | The boomerang of reconciliation

The political slogan of Ethiopian president Abiy Ahmed is "Medemer", union. But his reforms, aimed at unifying ethnically diverse Ethiopia, have re-ignited the lingering ethnic and political divisions, and put the very integrity of Africa's second most populous country at risk. Ethiopia's unity is now facing its greatest challenge. The military conflict between the government and the Tigray separatists TPLF in the north has raged for a month.

The TPLF presents the conflict as a fight for the rights of the 10 autonomous regions of Ethiopia against an over-reaching president who is determined to centralise power in his own hands. They argue that Abiy Ahmed's policies discriminate against the people of Tigray, and his rule is an "illegal, unitarist, personal dictatorship". The central government, on the other hand, is denying any attempts to centralise control of the country.

Three big decisions have triggered TPLF's anger. The organisation has dominated all government coalitions for the last 30 years before Abiy came to power in 2018. First, his efforts to find reconciliation with Eritrea. Second, the replacement of the ethnically based coalition with a new national party. And third, the postponement of the parliamentary elections due to the Covid pandemic. Any and all of these three decisions were enough reason for the TPLF to break ties with him, and now they've all converged.

The resulting conflict is threatening to destabilise the entire region. The African Union is based in Ethiopia, and AU troops participate in peace-keeping efforts from Somalia to South Sudan, working in cooperation with Western countries against Islamist groups.

One of the leaders of the political opposition, Lenoko Lata says the federal system is under pressure by both sides in this conflict, since the debate has polarised both the supporters of centralism and those advocating for a more federalised country. Abiy insists he has tried all options to work with the TPLF, but they never took the offered hand.

The government claims the Tigray forces started first by attacking federal troops located in the northern region. TPLF claims the attack was a preemptive strike.

There are decades old rivalries between the various ethnic groups of Ethiopia at the bottom of this political struggle. Many regional leaders view Abiy's democratic reforms as a chance to grab more power for their own ethnic group. Ironically, it turns out, despite the people's indignation with the repressions of the previous regime, the TPLF may be getting reluctant support from a number of regional leaders who view the organisation as a counterweight against any aspirations for a more centralised system in Ethiopia. Even those who have vehemently opposed the TPLF in the past, may be feeling the existing balance of powers is at risk and the federation could crumble if the TPLF gets sidelined, and is no longer part of the big game.

For added context, the northern border of Ethiopia is with reclusive and highly militarised Eritrea, often dubbed Africa's North Korea. Eritrea earned its independence from Ethiopia in 1991 after three decades of war. The border disputes caused yet another conflict between the two in 1998-2000, resulting in tens of thousands of deaths. The TPLF was spearheading that fight on behalf of Ethiopia, and they consider Eritrea their arch-enemy.

A few months after Abiy took power in 2018, he signed a peace treaty with Eritrea, and he subsequently got the Nobel peace prize in 2019. The ensuing frequent meetings between Abiy and his Eritrean counterpart Isaias Afwerki became reason for accusations by the TPLF that the president was essentially acting as Isaias' puppet in the latter's attempts to cut "raw meat" off as payback for purported injustices in the past. Hence, Abiy's response, accusing the TPLF of trying to internationalise the conflict.

TPLF has shelled the Eritrean capital Asmara with missiles, and accuses their northern neighbour of sending troops to fight alongside the central Ethipian forces advancing on Tigray. Abiy has denied this.

The problem stems from the time Abiy started consolidating his domestic positions after he signed the peace with Eritrea. Last year he replaced the long ruling coalition (including four ethnic parties) with an all-Ethiopian party. Out of the former coalition members, only the TPLF has refused to join the new format.

Thus, Abiy may have underestimated the Tigrays' anger from losing their hold on power. This has been a bitter divorce, and Abiy had no plan for a peaceful TPLF exit from power. The belligerent rhetoric on both sides hasn't helped, either. The result is that the Tigrays now feel besieged, stuck in a corner, and this has resulted in unprecedented local support for the TPLF.

Abiy's hurry to do the political reform and create the new party was a mistake. The old coalition was a well established forum where the many sides of Ethiopian politics could meet, and sort out their differences. And this, in a country where not until so long ao, voicing political dissent would result in getting jailed. The problem is, Abiy was in a hurry because there were parliamentary elections coming in August, and the new party was supposed to be facing an array of ethnic opposition groups.

But then the pandemic struck, and the government decided to postpone the election. Many opposition groups reluctantly agreed to this, but not the TPLF, who did go ahead with their regional elections in September. Both sides accused each other of violating the Constitution.

TPLF won a landslide in the region of Tigray. The chamber of federations, the central legislative institution dealing with constitutional issues, voted for cutting the region's budget. On October 29, the Tigray armed forces refused to grant access to an Ethiopian general who was supposed to assume command of the regional capital Mekelle. On November 4, the government announced the Tigray troops had attacked the military base of Dansha, which was the casus belli for the ensuing armed conflict.

A month later, the fights have brought countless casualties, destruction, and a new refugee crisis affecting neighbouring countries. Over 40 thousand people have fled to the Sudan, where the local communities and the international humanitarian workers have struggled to provide enough food, shelter and medical care for them. Almost half of the refugees are children.

As more people continued to flee the regional capital every day, Abiy ordered the final phase of the military operation. The half-million population of Mekelle was warned not to expect any mercy unless they distanced themselves from the TPLF while they still could.

Now Tigray, a region of 6 million people, is in disarray. Access to foo an essential goods is disrupted. The UN keeps insisting that immediate access should be granted to independent humanitarian workers. The Ethiopian government has promised to provide a humanitarian corridor under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of peace, without giving any further detail. There've been reports that Ethiopian troops along the Sudanese border are blocking access to people fleeing the country. Due to the disrupted communications and transport it is extremely difficult to assess much of what is being claimed, and the region is further plunging into chaos as we speak. The true scales of the crisis is only going to be assessed much later. Not until all sides involved lay down the guns and sit at the table, anyway.