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As the world is already bracing for life WITH Covid-19 (rather than POST Covid-19, as that scenario seems unlikely), the focus is shifting to the possible ways of treating the disease - especially the development of vaccines. Most estimates indicate that we're about a year and a half away from having a vaccine - at best. But what will happen once we have it? Who will get it first? Will it be accessible to all?

Well, the fact is, there are no established international rules and principles that could guarantee the fair distribution of such a vaccine.

It's no secret that distribution is defined by supply and demand, i.e. the market. This of course poses the risk of the bulk of the vaccines getting concentrated in the hands of a few countries, notably the US, West Europe, Canada, Japan, because those are the ones who can afford it. We have seen this problems many times with similar medicines.

There is one more problem. Generic drugs are not profitable. And the market demands that the more profitable products should take precedence. So, things that are not profitable (i.e. do not bring a lot of money to the producer) tend to get overlooked, and are not readily available at the market. Certain vaccines and medicines have been killed in their bud for a lack of economic stimulus to produce them, including a whole family of Ebola drugs that were being prepared, but were as never released for mass production because it became evident they would not bring enough profit.

Still, it's undeniable that the involvement of private companies in developing potential vaccines is beneficial, as it provides competition that would bring benefits, including more quality in a shorter time. Still, creating a new vaccine remains a very expensive and risky business, and the private sector does not like betting on high-risk endeavours, which is why government involvement is crucial.

Right now, giving the green light to any potential Covid-19 vaccine would depend on four major producers, and a number of smaller companies from the biotech sector. Currently, the most promising projects are being developed in China, the US and Germany. As a whole, there are about 80 researches being done as of now on a new vaccine.

You may have guessed by now that my point is, on a global scale things shouldn't entirely be left in the hands of the omnipotent and infallible market - many are concerned even from now that the prices of the new vaccine would be too steep, and the quantities insufficient, rendering it inaccessible to the majority of people. That is why several countries, plus the EU and the Bill Gates foundation are planning to fund the WHO with more than 8 billion euros so it could adeqately provide the world with vaccines and relevant medicines.

Except, how exactly that distribution would be happening, remains unclear. And neither is it clear whether the US would join the planned initiative. The US has its own BARDA agency, but it obligates the companies to produce their medicines on US soil. Currently, BARDS is cooperating with the European pharmaceutical giant Sanofi in the development of a Covid-19 vaccine. But there's a suspicion that the US main goal is to first provide their own population with medicines. Which is understandable, but hardly beneficial for the rest of humankind in the larger picture.

Europe is also pursuing similar goals. Germany has already emphasised how important it is that the vaccine should be produced within Europe itself, which is their only way of ensuring sustained deliveries.

It is clear that in the conditions of such a scramble for medical resources, the first ones to get sufficient amonts of the vaccines would be the ones who could afford to offer the best price. We've seen some pretty ugly moves in that regard already. To avoid a similar scenario with the vaccine, Bill Gates now proposes to start production lines in developing countries. Otherwise the poor countries across Africa, Asia and Latin America would certainly get it last.

I mean, it's not like the current practice hasn't proven the necessity for a fairer distribution. For example a decade ago, during the swine flu outbreak, the wealthy countries bought off all quantities of the vaccine available, leaving the rest to suffer. Whether there will be enough political will to do things differently this time over, is now as vital and desirable as it is unlikely.

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