Russia joins the scramble
Nov. 3rd, 2019 09:00 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
nairiporterWe have talked about China's silent takeover of Africa. We have talked about the Western colonial powers having used Africa. And of the US trying to influence Africa. But now Russia is joining the new scramble for Africa, too.
Putin's activities in the Middle East have largely kept his activities in Africa out of the public focus. And yet, they do exist, and they are intensifying. In his attempt to restore Russia's global influence, he is stepping in along a vast front, from Algeria to Mozambique. He is sending arms shipments, helping various autocrats who've fallen out of public favor to retain power, sending mercenaries to guard projects for extracting natural resources.
While it may appear that Africa has never been among Russia's top priorities, Putin is actively and methodically pursuing partnerships there, both old and new. As usual, and similarly to China, he is acting smartly, mixing politics with business, to counter the Western sanctions and expand his geopolitical positions.
This is a relatively easy and cheap way to expand Russian influence. It may not be due to any sort of long-term plan for Africa, but it is still in concert with the Russian geopolitical goal to target any opportunity for projecting global power.
The expanding Russian presence in Africa is driven by a combination of old Soviet-time legacy and new opportunities emerging from the vacuum that any Western error might leave behind. The Soviets used to be a dominant factor on the continent, but after the collapse of the USSR, many of those relations fell apart (though the Soviet support is still vividly remembered throughout much of the continent). Now Putin is trying to restore those links, along with the benefit that comes with them.
From Russia's perspective, this return to Africa is like a last-minute jump on the last car of the train as it is leaving the station. There are still some old elites in Africa who retain their links to the Soviet epoch, but they are mostly a remnant of an age long gone. The fact is, those countries no longer have the same relations with Russia today. So Putin is scrambling to restore them as much as possible, while traces of that legacy still remains. After it is gone, it would be too difficult to do that.
Russia's return to Africa is facilitated by America's waning interest in the continent under Trump's largely isolationist administration. Sure, there was a US strategy for Africa that was presented last year, but it was mostly focused on containing China's growing influence. When we get to the details though, there is little of essence in terms of top-level involvement in this cause. Trump's constant racist remarks ("shithole countries", etc) have not helped prevent that vacuum of trust, which Putin has readily stepped in to fill.
As for Europe, the EU is too focused on containing African migration across the Mediterranean, which has naturally caused some tension with the leaders of the continent. In the meantime, Russia keeps supporting military relations with many of those countries, strengthening trade raltions, and not shying away from lending a hand to outright autocrats in keeping them in power in defiance of the Western pressure on Africa.
This is now shaping up as a threeway between America, China and Russia.
Putin's activities in the Middle East have largely kept his activities in Africa out of the public focus. And yet, they do exist, and they are intensifying. In his attempt to restore Russia's global influence, he is stepping in along a vast front, from Algeria to Mozambique. He is sending arms shipments, helping various autocrats who've fallen out of public favor to retain power, sending mercenaries to guard projects for extracting natural resources.
While it may appear that Africa has never been among Russia's top priorities, Putin is actively and methodically pursuing partnerships there, both old and new. As usual, and similarly to China, he is acting smartly, mixing politics with business, to counter the Western sanctions and expand his geopolitical positions.
This is a relatively easy and cheap way to expand Russian influence. It may not be due to any sort of long-term plan for Africa, but it is still in concert with the Russian geopolitical goal to target any opportunity for projecting global power.
The expanding Russian presence in Africa is driven by a combination of old Soviet-time legacy and new opportunities emerging from the vacuum that any Western error might leave behind. The Soviets used to be a dominant factor on the continent, but after the collapse of the USSR, many of those relations fell apart (though the Soviet support is still vividly remembered throughout much of the continent). Now Putin is trying to restore those links, along with the benefit that comes with them.
From Russia's perspective, this return to Africa is like a last-minute jump on the last car of the train as it is leaving the station. There are still some old elites in Africa who retain their links to the Soviet epoch, but they are mostly a remnant of an age long gone. The fact is, those countries no longer have the same relations with Russia today. So Putin is scrambling to restore them as much as possible, while traces of that legacy still remains. After it is gone, it would be too difficult to do that.
Russia's return to Africa is facilitated by America's waning interest in the continent under Trump's largely isolationist administration. Sure, there was a US strategy for Africa that was presented last year, but it was mostly focused on containing China's growing influence. When we get to the details though, there is little of essence in terms of top-level involvement in this cause. Trump's constant racist remarks ("shithole countries", etc) have not helped prevent that vacuum of trust, which Putin has readily stepped in to fill.
As for Europe, the EU is too focused on containing African migration across the Mediterranean, which has naturally caused some tension with the leaders of the continent. In the meantime, Russia keeps supporting military relations with many of those countries, strengthening trade raltions, and not shying away from lending a hand to outright autocrats in keeping them in power in defiance of the Western pressure on Africa.
This is now shaping up as a threeway between America, China and Russia.
