Russia joins the scramble for Africa
Mar. 14th, 2019 09:49 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
nairiporterOthers do it, so why shouldn't Russia? Their political and economic invasion in Europe, the Middle East and cyberspace is no surprise, and neither is their assault on Africa. Although it didn't use to be as pronounced until recently.
Much of what Russia is doing in Africa reflects on Putin's desire to restore his country's status of a superpower. Firstly, it's got a geopolitical dimension. Africa is a huge potential market, with enormous population, and naturally Russia isn't the first country to try to build a political bloc that would serve its interest at the international stage, including the UN and other institutions.
In the race between the East (mostly India and China) and West (EU, USA), Africa is a battlefield between the large geopolitical players. This continent is already in the focus of many great powers. China's involvement has already been discussed here at length. Turkey is also playing this game. The EU, more specifically France, has military presence and direct involvement in the Sahel and Maghreb, and the US is particularly active in East Africa. Russia has long been expected to turn their attention to this problem. And their interest have become very visible in the last couple of years.
The Russian involvement became very evident after the incident with three Russian journalists who were mysteriously killed in the Central African Republic, possibly by Wagner mercenaries. What they were investigating was exactly Kremlin's economic interests in Africa. Their murder revealed a well planned strategy based on old Soviet-time connections with the local governments, now re-fashioned through Putin's modern model.
The Russians have serious economic and energy interests in Africa. For Russia, the African energy producers are simultaneously competition on the oil and gas market, and potential partners in the construction of nuclear power plants. Russia also has interest in the diamonds, gold and minerals industry. They also sell guns, and lots of them. Russia provides assistance with training the local security forces in many African countries, especially CAR. Russians participate in the UN peace-keeping forces, in the counter-terror units, etc.
But that's not all. Russia is about to establish a naval base in the Sudan, on the western side of the Red Sea, a very strategic region where US, Iranian, UAE, Chinese, Saudi, Israeli and Turkish interests are at play, too. The Red Sea is also a key trade route for much of the oil/gas and other goods. In 2017, the Sudanese president Bashir discussed a potential military cooperation with Putin, and their plan is to block the US interests in the region.
Beside the military base in the Sudan, Russia already has a logistics centre in Eritrea, also on the Red Sea shore, and close to the Bab al-Mandeb straits, leading to the Somalian peninsula and the Arab Sea. Eritrea also hosts a UAE base, which means there will soon be direct competition for influence in the region.
We shouldn't omit Libya. It is still in the grip of civil war, its territory torn into three pieces. Russia has always had interest in the Libyan oil, and right now they are developign relations in this direction with the government of East Libya, headed by Gen. Haftar. Russia is also interested in establishing military presence in the region, another key location between Africa and the Mediterranean section of Europe. Last year Russia gained access to Egypt's military bases, thanks to new agreements with Gen. El-Sisi.
In short, through diplomatic agreements Russia has secured its military presence in the Sudan, Eritrea and Libya. The former two facilities will allow Putin to collect intelligence and expand his influence in the region between the Red Sea, Mediterranean and the Arab Sea. This means that the US, Turkish, Saudi and other ships passing from the Gulf and the Indian Ocean will be directly under Russian surveillance.
In the case with Libya this means Russia will be able to establish a strong air and sea presence in the Mediterranean, where NATO's southern flank is located. In turn, the Russian bases in Syria provide dominance of the Eastern Mediterranean. Although in t-2918 the US announced they would be increasing their presence along NATO's southern flank, now in 2019 the Russian presence is much more visible.
What's more, the construction of these military bases was preceded by sending Russian military instructions to the respective countries, along with mercenary support from the infamous Wagner company. These have operated in Syria and Ukraine, and now they are also present in Madagascar, Yemen, Libya, the Sudan, Somalia, CAR, and South Sudan. The local media in Zimbabwe and Mozambique also report of Russian mercenaries guarding mineral and diamond mines where Kremlin-friendly companies operate. In the Sudan, while protesters demanded Bashir's resignation, Russian mercenaries were guarding the president and his circle against a possible coup. This makes Russia's behaviour very similar to America's from the 80s, when the US used to support a number of authoritarian leaders. Russia doesn't care if Bashir has committed some of the worst crimes against humanity in his country, as long as he can provide safe operation for the Russian companies and interests.
Apart from confirming the efficiency of the mercenary model, all of this also means Russia has a lot more resources for establishing its influence than previously suspected. The scramble for Africa will be fierce, and with Russia's introduction, the game will be getting ever dirtier. This clash of interests will directly affect not just the continent itself, but long-term global politics as well.
Much of what Russia is doing in Africa reflects on Putin's desire to restore his country's status of a superpower. Firstly, it's got a geopolitical dimension. Africa is a huge potential market, with enormous population, and naturally Russia isn't the first country to try to build a political bloc that would serve its interest at the international stage, including the UN and other institutions.
In the race between the East (mostly India and China) and West (EU, USA), Africa is a battlefield between the large geopolitical players. This continent is already in the focus of many great powers. China's involvement has already been discussed here at length. Turkey is also playing this game. The EU, more specifically France, has military presence and direct involvement in the Sahel and Maghreb, and the US is particularly active in East Africa. Russia has long been expected to turn their attention to this problem. And their interest have become very visible in the last couple of years.
The Russian involvement became very evident after the incident with three Russian journalists who were mysteriously killed in the Central African Republic, possibly by Wagner mercenaries. What they were investigating was exactly Kremlin's economic interests in Africa. Their murder revealed a well planned strategy based on old Soviet-time connections with the local governments, now re-fashioned through Putin's modern model.
The Russians have serious economic and energy interests in Africa. For Russia, the African energy producers are simultaneously competition on the oil and gas market, and potential partners in the construction of nuclear power plants. Russia also has interest in the diamonds, gold and minerals industry. They also sell guns, and lots of them. Russia provides assistance with training the local security forces in many African countries, especially CAR. Russians participate in the UN peace-keeping forces, in the counter-terror units, etc.
But that's not all. Russia is about to establish a naval base in the Sudan, on the western side of the Red Sea, a very strategic region where US, Iranian, UAE, Chinese, Saudi, Israeli and Turkish interests are at play, too. The Red Sea is also a key trade route for much of the oil/gas and other goods. In 2017, the Sudanese president Bashir discussed a potential military cooperation with Putin, and their plan is to block the US interests in the region.
Beside the military base in the Sudan, Russia already has a logistics centre in Eritrea, also on the Red Sea shore, and close to the Bab al-Mandeb straits, leading to the Somalian peninsula and the Arab Sea. Eritrea also hosts a UAE base, which means there will soon be direct competition for influence in the region.
We shouldn't omit Libya. It is still in the grip of civil war, its territory torn into three pieces. Russia has always had interest in the Libyan oil, and right now they are developign relations in this direction with the government of East Libya, headed by Gen. Haftar. Russia is also interested in establishing military presence in the region, another key location between Africa and the Mediterranean section of Europe. Last year Russia gained access to Egypt's military bases, thanks to new agreements with Gen. El-Sisi.
In short, through diplomatic agreements Russia has secured its military presence in the Sudan, Eritrea and Libya. The former two facilities will allow Putin to collect intelligence and expand his influence in the region between the Red Sea, Mediterranean and the Arab Sea. This means that the US, Turkish, Saudi and other ships passing from the Gulf and the Indian Ocean will be directly under Russian surveillance.
In the case with Libya this means Russia will be able to establish a strong air and sea presence in the Mediterranean, where NATO's southern flank is located. In turn, the Russian bases in Syria provide dominance of the Eastern Mediterranean. Although in t-2918 the US announced they would be increasing their presence along NATO's southern flank, now in 2019 the Russian presence is much more visible.
What's more, the construction of these military bases was preceded by sending Russian military instructions to the respective countries, along with mercenary support from the infamous Wagner company. These have operated in Syria and Ukraine, and now they are also present in Madagascar, Yemen, Libya, the Sudan, Somalia, CAR, and South Sudan. The local media in Zimbabwe and Mozambique also report of Russian mercenaries guarding mineral and diamond mines where Kremlin-friendly companies operate. In the Sudan, while protesters demanded Bashir's resignation, Russian mercenaries were guarding the president and his circle against a possible coup. This makes Russia's behaviour very similar to America's from the 80s, when the US used to support a number of authoritarian leaders. Russia doesn't care if Bashir has committed some of the worst crimes against humanity in his country, as long as he can provide safe operation for the Russian companies and interests.
Apart from confirming the efficiency of the mercenary model, all of this also means Russia has a lot more resources for establishing its influence than previously suspected. The scramble for Africa will be fierce, and with Russia's introduction, the game will be getting ever dirtier. This clash of interests will directly affect not just the continent itself, but long-term global politics as well.
