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nairiporterThe main slogan of the wave of protests that flooded the Arab world about three years ago, was the people against the regime. That was the most common thing between the protests in Egypt, Syria and Libya. People had specific expectations and demands for human dignity, social justice, and representation in government, and an end to oppression. But what both the protest movements and the regimes that were severely pressed against the wall lacked, was a common, uniting vision. The central issue was the distribution and participation in power and little more beyond that. People simply wanted to bring down the regimes; the rulers did their best to keep themselves in power. It was all fairly simple.
As of now, the recap is rather damning: it's not just Syria and Iraq that are torn by deep problems and violence. The horror of internal conflict threatens Libya with fragmentation as well, and also Yemen. The islamic State, Al Qaeda, Boko Haram and other terrorist groups are stronger than ever, using the most grotesque forms of violence and humiliation, to then show their perverse gestures of triumph to the whole world through Tweeter and Youtube.
The artificial, arbitrary borders once drawn on a large piece of paper by the Western colonial powers in complete disregard for the realities of the region, have started smearing out and evaporating. There is now a debate whether Syria and Iraq could even be called states any more. Large parts of their territories have fallen under the control of jihadists and other groups, and the drive for creating an independent Kurdish state is again high on the agenda.
The entire Arab world is visibly backtracking into the wrong direction. If we look at the political map of that corner of the world, we would notice two significant tendencies: countries engulfed in terror, war and threatened with falling apart; and dictatorships where repression is more widely used than ever now (like Egypt and most Gulf states). All of this brings back a very negative prejudice: that the Arab peoples are somehow "not mature enough" for democracy, and could only be kept under control through the "iron fist" approach. An argument which former despots like Mubarak and Gaddafi used to cement their power ambitions - with the tacit approval of the West, which preferred the lesser evil.
This argument is no doubt profoundly arrogant and racist. It is true that based on the stagnant, backward power and social systems in large part of the Arab world, there aren't many good conditions for democratisation and modernisation. There is almost no middle class in many places in that region, and the middle class is generally the driver of social and political change in places like Europe, North America and the rest of the Western world. The education systems in the Arab world are in shambles - even in the wealthiest among the Gulf states. The constant population explosion and the lack of economic reform will lead to an exponential increase of the number of desperate unemployed young people who have no perspectives in life. And in such conditions, religion and ethnic identity tends to easily become a tool for radicalisation.
This is what the extremists and terrorists are counting on. But it's not only them - the authoritarian regimes, too. They do need terror and violence to legitimise their own dominance, often themselves aiding the rise of terror and violence. Syria and the Gulf states are fine examples of that. Therefore, the gradual decline of what little democracy existed in the Arab world is not to blame on the people, or their ethnic identity, or their religion. The main problem in the region is largely the lack of will for reform among the rulers. Only a few countries like Tunisia, and partly Morocco, are showing some serious will for reform. Most regional kings and emirs whose right of rule cites divine mandate, and presidents who've legitimised their reign through questionable elections, have been gripping at their own power structures, and never letting go. They not only suppress Islamists, but liberals and democratic forces in general, too. And this way they're only generating more discontent, more violence and instability. It's like a vicious circle.
This is why the next wave of Arab protests is only a matter of time. But this time it's unlikely to be identified as a "spring" of any sorts. it'll be ugly, and at this point no one knows what will come out of it.
As of now, the recap is rather damning: it's not just Syria and Iraq that are torn by deep problems and violence. The horror of internal conflict threatens Libya with fragmentation as well, and also Yemen. The islamic State, Al Qaeda, Boko Haram and other terrorist groups are stronger than ever, using the most grotesque forms of violence and humiliation, to then show their perverse gestures of triumph to the whole world through Tweeter and Youtube.
The artificial, arbitrary borders once drawn on a large piece of paper by the Western colonial powers in complete disregard for the realities of the region, have started smearing out and evaporating. There is now a debate whether Syria and Iraq could even be called states any more. Large parts of their territories have fallen under the control of jihadists and other groups, and the drive for creating an independent Kurdish state is again high on the agenda.
The entire Arab world is visibly backtracking into the wrong direction. If we look at the political map of that corner of the world, we would notice two significant tendencies: countries engulfed in terror, war and threatened with falling apart; and dictatorships where repression is more widely used than ever now (like Egypt and most Gulf states). All of this brings back a very negative prejudice: that the Arab peoples are somehow "not mature enough" for democracy, and could only be kept under control through the "iron fist" approach. An argument which former despots like Mubarak and Gaddafi used to cement their power ambitions - with the tacit approval of the West, which preferred the lesser evil.
This argument is no doubt profoundly arrogant and racist. It is true that based on the stagnant, backward power and social systems in large part of the Arab world, there aren't many good conditions for democratisation and modernisation. There is almost no middle class in many places in that region, and the middle class is generally the driver of social and political change in places like Europe, North America and the rest of the Western world. The education systems in the Arab world are in shambles - even in the wealthiest among the Gulf states. The constant population explosion and the lack of economic reform will lead to an exponential increase of the number of desperate unemployed young people who have no perspectives in life. And in such conditions, religion and ethnic identity tends to easily become a tool for radicalisation.
This is what the extremists and terrorists are counting on. But it's not only them - the authoritarian regimes, too. They do need terror and violence to legitimise their own dominance, often themselves aiding the rise of terror and violence. Syria and the Gulf states are fine examples of that. Therefore, the gradual decline of what little democracy existed in the Arab world is not to blame on the people, or their ethnic identity, or their religion. The main problem in the region is largely the lack of will for reform among the rulers. Only a few countries like Tunisia, and partly Morocco, are showing some serious will for reform. Most regional kings and emirs whose right of rule cites divine mandate, and presidents who've legitimised their reign through questionable elections, have been gripping at their own power structures, and never letting go. They not only suppress Islamists, but liberals and democratic forces in general, too. And this way they're only generating more discontent, more violence and instability. It's like a vicious circle.
This is why the next wave of Arab protests is only a matter of time. But this time it's unlikely to be identified as a "spring" of any sorts. it'll be ugly, and at this point no one knows what will come out of it.
