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nairiporterThe reports that Russia may have agreed with the US on an exchange of intel related to the Islamic State has caused quite a stir in Moscow. The Russian ministry of foreign affairs hurried to deny these allegations with such vigour that one thing became very clear from the whole debacle: Putin's government is only prepared to give unofficial support to the US-lead operation in Syria/Iraq.
The first reason for this behaviour is that it was the US who initiated the struggle against the jihadists. Anti-Americanism is sadly so strong among the Russian leaders that the very participation of Americans in any project makes it impossible for Russia to officially join it. That, of course, is hardly rational and sensible behaviour, including from a Realpolitik point of view, which has become so fashionable in Russia lately. The latest statements of foreign minister Lavrov are proof that even if it came to defending themselves from, say, an alien invasion, the Russians would still refuse to cooperate with the "hawks" at the Pentagon.
And let's not forget that Assad remains Russia's ally. That Assad alone (and not the US) is the sole culprit for the rise of ISIL, is not a popular view in Russia, to say the least. Meanwhile, the experts in Moscow know full well that the jihadists have consistently pointed at Russia as one of their primary targets. But apparently, the Russian intelligence services are completely sure in their own capabilities, and are not concerned by the fact that over 800 Russian citizens are presently fighting in Syria and Iraq, veterans from Chechnya among them. There are also volunteers from other regions of North Caucasus, and also from Bashkortostan and Tatarstan. If the extremists return to Russia at some point, the intelligence services and the police will have to deal with them. It is therefore incomprehensible why the Kremlin keeps pretending to not be concerned about these things, provided that there have already been several terror attacks in Moscow, organised by Islamists from North Caucasus.
One thing the Russians are probably right about, though. The chances for a direct military threat to Russia, including from the Central Asian region, is very slim right now. At least until the Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev is alive, and his Uzbek counterpart Islam Karimov, too. These two countries are the only ones from Russia's "buffer zone" from where a possible Islamist threat could emerge. The IS could hardly reach Russia's borders through alternative corridors. There are just too many obstacles on the way: Azerbaijan, Armenia, Iran, Turkey. The list could go on.
In a nutshell, from their own standpoint, the Russians are taking a pragmatic position. They will stay on the sidelines and watch the struggle between the West and the militant Sunni Islam, and will be helping only when it suits them. There is hardly anyone who could force Putin to change his position on this, unless the situation becomes so bad that the US are compelled to make an alliance with Iran, and bring Turkey along, as well. Then, of course, Russia will be no longer able to stand aside. But for the time being, the Russian ministry of defense keeps insisting that the US should coordinate their bombing against IS with Assad. And in the meantime, Russia will keep selling weapons to that same Assad, to the Iraqi military and the Kurdish militia. But an exchange of intel between Russia and the US cannot be expected to happen any time soon. At least until Putin stops seeing the "long hand" of the West as the primary source of all his economic and political woes.
The first reason for this behaviour is that it was the US who initiated the struggle against the jihadists. Anti-Americanism is sadly so strong among the Russian leaders that the very participation of Americans in any project makes it impossible for Russia to officially join it. That, of course, is hardly rational and sensible behaviour, including from a Realpolitik point of view, which has become so fashionable in Russia lately. The latest statements of foreign minister Lavrov are proof that even if it came to defending themselves from, say, an alien invasion, the Russians would still refuse to cooperate with the "hawks" at the Pentagon.
And let's not forget that Assad remains Russia's ally. That Assad alone (and not the US) is the sole culprit for the rise of ISIL, is not a popular view in Russia, to say the least. Meanwhile, the experts in Moscow know full well that the jihadists have consistently pointed at Russia as one of their primary targets. But apparently, the Russian intelligence services are completely sure in their own capabilities, and are not concerned by the fact that over 800 Russian citizens are presently fighting in Syria and Iraq, veterans from Chechnya among them. There are also volunteers from other regions of North Caucasus, and also from Bashkortostan and Tatarstan. If the extremists return to Russia at some point, the intelligence services and the police will have to deal with them. It is therefore incomprehensible why the Kremlin keeps pretending to not be concerned about these things, provided that there have already been several terror attacks in Moscow, organised by Islamists from North Caucasus.
One thing the Russians are probably right about, though. The chances for a direct military threat to Russia, including from the Central Asian region, is very slim right now. At least until the Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev is alive, and his Uzbek counterpart Islam Karimov, too. These two countries are the only ones from Russia's "buffer zone" from where a possible Islamist threat could emerge. The IS could hardly reach Russia's borders through alternative corridors. There are just too many obstacles on the way: Azerbaijan, Armenia, Iran, Turkey. The list could go on.
In a nutshell, from their own standpoint, the Russians are taking a pragmatic position. They will stay on the sidelines and watch the struggle between the West and the militant Sunni Islam, and will be helping only when it suits them. There is hardly anyone who could force Putin to change his position on this, unless the situation becomes so bad that the US are compelled to make an alliance with Iran, and bring Turkey along, as well. Then, of course, Russia will be no longer able to stand aside. But for the time being, the Russian ministry of defense keeps insisting that the US should coordinate their bombing against IS with Assad. And in the meantime, Russia will keep selling weapons to that same Assad, to the Iraqi military and the Kurdish militia. But an exchange of intel between Russia and the US cannot be expected to happen any time soon. At least until Putin stops seeing the "long hand" of the West as the primary source of all his economic and political woes.
