A new country emerging
Dec. 8th, 2012 06:19 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
nairiporter"At long last, the international community has signed the act that paves the way to a Palestinian state - and long overdue". This is how Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas commented on the UN vote from last month, where the Palestinian autonomy was upgraded to "observer" status. Still not a full member, but definitely a progress. Israel, of course, was quick to retaliate, followed by vast international condemnation.
The point is, this UN move indirectly acknowledges that the Palestinians are in control of a certain territory. And it is not the UN itself that is recognising the emerging of a new future country - it is all the separate states. The vote has a deep symbolic meaning too. And in the Middle East, symbolism is important.
Although the new status still doesn't turn Palestine into a country, it could bring some benefits. Like the right to participate in an array of international organisations. The biggest question at this point is of course if it can join the International Criminal Court. This UN decision increases the chances for such a development, but it won't happen automatically, and neither is it guaranteed that politics wouldn't intervene in the process. If Palestine is indeed allowed to join the Court, in theory it could file a lawsuit against Israel on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity. Further, separate charges could be pressed against more than 500,000 Israelis who have illegally settled in more than 100 settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. What's more, Israel risks being prosecuted for the Gaza blockade, and the humanitarian element in that argument is very strong.
If we look at the numbers, the facts are very eloquent. 138 countries votes For, 9 Against and 41 Abstained. No surprise, the staunchest opponents to the motion were Israel and USA. Among the EU countries who supported the Palestinians were France, Austria, Italy, Spain, etc. The Czech Republic was the only European country to vote against, and Germany and UK abstained. Some of the newer EU members also abstained, fearing that voting either way would hurt their good relations with both sides.
What indirectly helped achieve such overwhelmingly positive results on the vote was the recent escalation of the Middle Eastern conflict, where Arabs and Jews were shooting missiles at each other once more. In result, the popularity of Hamas and their aggressive anti-Israeli rhetoric has won a great victory in hearts and minds, while Abbas suffered further isolation. But now, the international community is giving a new chance to the Fatah leader, to get back into the game and consolidate his authority as a moderate leader of the Palestinians. Now Abbas can claim that he has won the right to create a state for his people, while Hamas is all about violence, death and destruction.
With this bold move, Abbas is risking to lose all US aid for his West Bank government. The US believes a Palestinian state can only be created through direct negotiations between Israel and Palestine, a position that is generally supported in Tel Aviv too. But the latest talks between the two sides had already failed a couple of years ago, and were never renewed, mostly due to the aggressive Israeli policy of illegal settlement of the West Bank. The villages there are constantly increasing, and cutting the Palestinian communities from each other, turning the Palestinian autonomy into a scattered archipelago - although there is no legal provision to do that. The Palestinians insist that there can be no breakthrough in the negotiations until this policy stops, and Israel has left no other option to the Palestinians but either resort to violence, or bring the issue to the UN. And so they did both. Hamas choosing the former course of action, and Fatah the latter.
Now Benjamin Netanyahu is threatening that the peace negotiations could stop altogether. As if they existed in the first place. No doubt, the Israeli government is very angry with the Palestinians for their UN move. What is for sure, Israel will be less prone to cooperate now, especially since elections are coming next month, and the majority of people in Israel seem susceptible to the tough rhetoric and beating of war drums. We have seen this story before.
Netanyahu's stubborn position on the Palestinian question is no news, and we cannot expect it to soften in the next weeks. This is confirmed by Israel's latest actions: they stopped transferring the customs income that is so vital for the autonomy, and are suffocating Palestine both economically and territorially. Besides, after the UN vote, and despite protests by virtually all leading countries, Israel is standing firm by its plans to build 3000 new settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, including in the very fiercely contested Area E1. If this plan is carried out, the Palestinians in the West Bank would be completely blocked and cut away from those in Jerusalem, and that would practically prevent the creation of a new state, even if there is a UN decision in favour of that.
The response didn't come late. France, Britain and Spain have called the Israeli ambassadors to convey their indignation from this development. Germany has expressed "grave concerns", and Russia called Israel's actions "outright illegal". The US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton joined the EU foreign minister Catherine Ashton in stating that if the plan is carried out, this would destroy all chances for a peaceful resolution of the problem through the two-state scenario, and would open another vicious circle of violence.
Now the UN vote is giving a slight advantage to the Palestinian autonomy, and could finally convince the Israelis that a peaceful solution to the Palestinian issue is a key part of the future of Israel itself, in that it would remove the biggest threat for its existence. And would shut the mouths of many of its critics, and would deprive many elements in the Middle East from their primary reason for attacking Israel and its allies, and even wanting Israel's destruction.
Sadly, the peace negotiations practically do not exist at this point. So there is nothing that the UN could have really disrupted, as is the Israeli claim. The Palestinians can only benefit from this development, since they have nothing left to lose - now they can clearly show that most of the world is on their side. Even most of those countries which abstained in the vote, did this not because they somehow believed Palestine's case is illegitimate, but rather because they are still too afraid to spoil their relations with Israel. I.e., "Realpolitik" kicks in.
It is true that Israel is threatening to build new settlements and further block the payment of the customs income, but as a whole Israel has a lot more to lose from this situation.
Meanwhile, the formal recognition of the Palestinian state at the UN would be a victory for those leaders within the autonomy, who actually want a peaceful solution of the problem - and a defeat for Hamas, who are calling for violence. In fact, I do believe Israel will never carry out their plans in the West Bank. This very much looks a bluff, because Netanyahu wants to look strong before the election in January. For the last 10 years the negotiations have been stuck in a dead end, and there are no indications that they would be revived as long as the current Israeli government is in power. The UN recognition of Palestine could have done just that: stir the waters, and shake the table, and change the game. This opens an opportunity for advances through a different route, while still preserving the original goal, namely the creation of two states. Because people in Palestine were starting to get desperate that this would never happen - and we all know what desperation leads to.
Now the Palestinian cause is taking a slightly clearer shape, compared to the time before the UN vote. And the moderate Fatah is gaining prestige as the legitimate representative of the autonomy, at the expense of the violent option that is Hamas. What's more, the vote demonstrates Israel's increasing isolation, and most of all the growing rift between Israel and Europe, formerly a key ally. With Turkey's rapid emerging on the scene and the shifting balance of powers in the Middle East, it looks like the deck of cards is being arranged in the region, and though the end of the game is still nowhere near in sight, the rules are changing. And fast.
The point is, this UN move indirectly acknowledges that the Palestinians are in control of a certain territory. And it is not the UN itself that is recognising the emerging of a new future country - it is all the separate states. The vote has a deep symbolic meaning too. And in the Middle East, symbolism is important.
Although the new status still doesn't turn Palestine into a country, it could bring some benefits. Like the right to participate in an array of international organisations. The biggest question at this point is of course if it can join the International Criminal Court. This UN decision increases the chances for such a development, but it won't happen automatically, and neither is it guaranteed that politics wouldn't intervene in the process. If Palestine is indeed allowed to join the Court, in theory it could file a lawsuit against Israel on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity. Further, separate charges could be pressed against more than 500,000 Israelis who have illegally settled in more than 100 settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. What's more, Israel risks being prosecuted for the Gaza blockade, and the humanitarian element in that argument is very strong.
If we look at the numbers, the facts are very eloquent. 138 countries votes For, 9 Against and 41 Abstained. No surprise, the staunchest opponents to the motion were Israel and USA. Among the EU countries who supported the Palestinians were France, Austria, Italy, Spain, etc. The Czech Republic was the only European country to vote against, and Germany and UK abstained. Some of the newer EU members also abstained, fearing that voting either way would hurt their good relations with both sides.
What indirectly helped achieve such overwhelmingly positive results on the vote was the recent escalation of the Middle Eastern conflict, where Arabs and Jews were shooting missiles at each other once more. In result, the popularity of Hamas and their aggressive anti-Israeli rhetoric has won a great victory in hearts and minds, while Abbas suffered further isolation. But now, the international community is giving a new chance to the Fatah leader, to get back into the game and consolidate his authority as a moderate leader of the Palestinians. Now Abbas can claim that he has won the right to create a state for his people, while Hamas is all about violence, death and destruction.
With this bold move, Abbas is risking to lose all US aid for his West Bank government. The US believes a Palestinian state can only be created through direct negotiations between Israel and Palestine, a position that is generally supported in Tel Aviv too. But the latest talks between the two sides had already failed a couple of years ago, and were never renewed, mostly due to the aggressive Israeli policy of illegal settlement of the West Bank. The villages there are constantly increasing, and cutting the Palestinian communities from each other, turning the Palestinian autonomy into a scattered archipelago - although there is no legal provision to do that. The Palestinians insist that there can be no breakthrough in the negotiations until this policy stops, and Israel has left no other option to the Palestinians but either resort to violence, or bring the issue to the UN. And so they did both. Hamas choosing the former course of action, and Fatah the latter.
Now Benjamin Netanyahu is threatening that the peace negotiations could stop altogether. As if they existed in the first place. No doubt, the Israeli government is very angry with the Palestinians for their UN move. What is for sure, Israel will be less prone to cooperate now, especially since elections are coming next month, and the majority of people in Israel seem susceptible to the tough rhetoric and beating of war drums. We have seen this story before.
Netanyahu's stubborn position on the Palestinian question is no news, and we cannot expect it to soften in the next weeks. This is confirmed by Israel's latest actions: they stopped transferring the customs income that is so vital for the autonomy, and are suffocating Palestine both economically and territorially. Besides, after the UN vote, and despite protests by virtually all leading countries, Israel is standing firm by its plans to build 3000 new settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, including in the very fiercely contested Area E1. If this plan is carried out, the Palestinians in the West Bank would be completely blocked and cut away from those in Jerusalem, and that would practically prevent the creation of a new state, even if there is a UN decision in favour of that.
The response didn't come late. France, Britain and Spain have called the Israeli ambassadors to convey their indignation from this development. Germany has expressed "grave concerns", and Russia called Israel's actions "outright illegal". The US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton joined the EU foreign minister Catherine Ashton in stating that if the plan is carried out, this would destroy all chances for a peaceful resolution of the problem through the two-state scenario, and would open another vicious circle of violence.
Now the UN vote is giving a slight advantage to the Palestinian autonomy, and could finally convince the Israelis that a peaceful solution to the Palestinian issue is a key part of the future of Israel itself, in that it would remove the biggest threat for its existence. And would shut the mouths of many of its critics, and would deprive many elements in the Middle East from their primary reason for attacking Israel and its allies, and even wanting Israel's destruction.
Sadly, the peace negotiations practically do not exist at this point. So there is nothing that the UN could have really disrupted, as is the Israeli claim. The Palestinians can only benefit from this development, since they have nothing left to lose - now they can clearly show that most of the world is on their side. Even most of those countries which abstained in the vote, did this not because they somehow believed Palestine's case is illegitimate, but rather because they are still too afraid to spoil their relations with Israel. I.e., "Realpolitik" kicks in.
It is true that Israel is threatening to build new settlements and further block the payment of the customs income, but as a whole Israel has a lot more to lose from this situation.
Meanwhile, the formal recognition of the Palestinian state at the UN would be a victory for those leaders within the autonomy, who actually want a peaceful solution of the problem - and a defeat for Hamas, who are calling for violence. In fact, I do believe Israel will never carry out their plans in the West Bank. This very much looks a bluff, because Netanyahu wants to look strong before the election in January. For the last 10 years the negotiations have been stuck in a dead end, and there are no indications that they would be revived as long as the current Israeli government is in power. The UN recognition of Palestine could have done just that: stir the waters, and shake the table, and change the game. This opens an opportunity for advances through a different route, while still preserving the original goal, namely the creation of two states. Because people in Palestine were starting to get desperate that this would never happen - and we all know what desperation leads to.
Now the Palestinian cause is taking a slightly clearer shape, compared to the time before the UN vote. And the moderate Fatah is gaining prestige as the legitimate representative of the autonomy, at the expense of the violent option that is Hamas. What's more, the vote demonstrates Israel's increasing isolation, and most of all the growing rift between Israel and Europe, formerly a key ally. With Turkey's rapid emerging on the scene and the shifting balance of powers in the Middle East, it looks like the deck of cards is being arranged in the region, and though the end of the game is still nowhere near in sight, the rules are changing. And fast.
