nairiporter | The Kurdish dream resurrected

Red, white, and green. With a sun in the middle. This is the Kurdish flag, and it is proudly flying in many towns in North Syria. The Syrian government troops have withdrawn from the region to concentrate on the battles in the key cities Damascus and Aleppo in the south. But the vacuum was not filled with troops from the Free Syrian Army, the armed opposition fighting Assad. Instead, a deal was made between the Syrian opposition and the Kurdish government in autonomous North Iraq. At least for the duration of the conflict. Although the Syrian opposition so far chooses to ignore or outright reject the Kurdish aspirations for self-determination (in Syria), at a political level.

The Kurds have achieved an autonomy in North Iraq, centered in Arbil. Meanwhile, at least six towns in North Syria are now under Kurdish control.

There are about 2 million Kurds living in Syria, mostly Sunni Muslims, also some Christians and Alawites. They constitute 9% of the country's population. The Kurdistan Democratic Party of Syria has reached an agreement with the Syrian opposition that neither side would send troops to the region controlled by the other side. The price was the Kurds' participation in the anti-Assad rebellion. Another potentially decisive factor is that the leader of the Kurds in North Iraq, Massoud Barzani is a close friend to the US, and he could very soon be assigned a very responsible task with implications on the Syrian conflict.

In theory, the northern Kurdish regions of Iraq are still part of the country, but de facto they are now an autonomous area, ruled by the Iraqi Kurds. Last month their leader Barzani signed an agreement with the Syrian Kurds about joint rule in the "freed" Kurdish areas in North Syria. This is an opportunity for the regional Kurdish government to begin preparations for the establishment of an independent Kurdish state, Kurdistan. But of course there is a risk that the creation of such a state would meet resistance from abroad. The Kurds are most concentrated in areas spanning four countries (Iraq, Syria, Iran and Turkey), but more than half of those lands are in East Turkey. And Ankara wouldn't be thrilled by the creation of a Kurdish state south of its border.

On the other hand, Turkey could not keep opposing a Kurdish independence forever,a nd they might be beginning to come to that realisation. And indeed, in the last years some warming up of the relations between Barzani and the Turkish authorities is being observed. Several agreements for closer economic cooperation were signed, including the construction of an oil pipeline between North Iraq and the Turkish port at Ceyhan. Furthermore, North Iraq, probably the most stable and prosperous part of Iraq at the moment, is becoming an ever more important market for the ever expanding Turkish economy. In addition, Turkey and the Syrian Kurds may have come to an agreement to join forces in dealing with the rebellious PKK group that has carried out acts of terror throughout Turkey for decades. Although KDP still denies such a deal.

The unlikely alliance between Ankara and Arbil could set the ground for a new process of reassessment of the Kurdish issue, especially in Turkey. Even now Ankara has a strong influence on the regional Kurdish government in Arbil. We cannot rule out that Turkey would even have good interest in creating a sovereign Kurdistan and maintaining relatively friendly relations with the new state, and possibly exerting a reasonable amount of influence on it. Which would be the better option than perpetuating the Kurdish conflict on Turkish territory without an end.