![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
nairiporterFirst of all, happy July 4 to all American pals! So let's talk about this uphill battle that everyone keeps theoretising about. Let us start by saying that no doubt behind Obama's remarkable election victory in 2008 there was the significant youth element. Lots of young people got mobilised to vote for Obama, including through the means of online campaigning. But now the president will have to work even harder than he did back then - and not just to win the votes of the youngest voters who have just acquired their voting right... but he will probably struggle to even keep the youth vote at its previous levels.Although the young Americans tend to lean heavily to the left and vote democrat in their vast majority, a large part of them now share their elders' disillusion with the economic situation in the country, and this will inevitably reflect on November's election.
I don't want to be a downer, but let's be realistic. The moods among the various generations in the US will be decisive for the outcome of this vote, and there are tendencies showing that Obama will be facing a great challenge in regards to the so called Y-Generation. Surveys among the young voters indicate that they are not as enthusiastic about politics in general and voting in particular, as they used to be 4 years ago when they invested a lot of hope in Obama. Now many of them are disappointed with the deteriorated financial environment and there is a risk that they would want to punish him - not necessarily by voting for Romney (which is highly unlikely), but by just skipping this election and not turning up to the polls. What's more, the republicans still have some momentum from the 2010 House elections, when their success was largely thanks to the mobilisation of the older voters. If republicans manage to channel this anger energy, Obama would really be in trouble.
What's more, Internet will no longer be the sole domain of the democrats any more. It seems that unlike the youth, people from the so called Silent Generation, who have always been prone to voting more conservatively, are more interested in the coming election than they were 4 years ago (when many of them probably didn't vote because they were certain that Obama would win anyway). Besides, older Americans from this generation are now doing much better with Internet technologies, they use the social networks, etc. Surveys show that more than 50% of Americans over 65 now regularly use the Internet. So, preparing a strong online campaign wouldn't only reach the younger voters, it would also reach the older. Therefore the activeness of the republicans around the social networks, although a little delayed, is not to be underestimated. Firstly because they can reach their hardcore followers in one more way and mobilise them even more against Obama, and secondly because they could try to recruit some of those youngsters who are most disillusioned with the president's policies. And there is no lack of those.
No doubt the economy is the single most important issue for all generations, and it will largely decide the outcome of the vote. Next on the list are unemployment, health care, the job market. Foreign policy ranks much further down the list, including with the youth. It is normal that Americans would be focused on America right now, at a time of crisis. The war in Afghanistan is not regarded as important as it used to be, and Iraq is again that distant place beyond many seas that hardly anyone cares about. This is normal.
Of course, Obama has his advantages in the battle for the votes of Generation Y. Firstly, the fact that the youth were not very affected by the subprime mortgage crisis. At least not as severely affected as the generation of their parents. But on the other side, now when they are at the entrance to their independent life, after graduating high school or college, they will have to plunge head on, and face serious problems like unemployment, student loans, expensive high education and all the difficulties with finding a home.
The republicans have one strong card in their deck, which they could use to try to win the votes of Generation Y, and it is the fact that these youngsters are facing all of these problems for the first time exactly during Obama's tenure. So his term will partly be associated with the deteriorated economic situation, no matter if he is to blame for it or not. This reality, combined with the aggressive rhetoric of the republicans, could attract a lot of angry young people to the conservative side.
There are also other potential dangers for Obama in the way of life of all generations, because the deteriorating living standard overall and the widening gap between the middle class and the wealthiest could affect the moods immediately before the vote. There are an increasing number of multigeneration families in the US, and there are several factors for this. The recession is forcing many families to share a household; more and more young people are postponing the moment of settling down and making a family of their own (because of the economic hardships and because making a career becomes an increasing priority); the influx of immigrants also contributes to the increase of multigeneration families, etc.
Those who were born after WW2, the famous Baby-Boomers, are also in an interesting situation. Now they are turning into something like the Sandwich Generation, because they are squeezed between their parents who are now retired, and their children who are facing enormous difficulties with becoming economically independent. The baby-boomers themselves are extremely concerned about their own finances and they are doing their best to postpone retirement.
If previously the common wisdom was that a person ought to become financially independent at 20 years of age, now most Americans think the more suitable age is somewhere around 25. So there is a new phenomenon forming among the American youth, called "delayed adulthood". And also the "helicopter parents", who continue circling over their children even after they have finished college and have got a job. There are cases when the parents of a young job candidate who has been rejected on an interview, would call at the company and demand explanation from the management why their son or daughter has been dismissed.
The only enemy of the republicans at this point could be Mitt Romney himself. If the youth, no matter how angry with the too slow recovery under Obama, still fail to find inspiration in the republican candidate, and to recognise a viable alternative to the current president, they would either hold their nose and still vote Obama, or more likely just ignore the polls. Which is the republicans' chance to cause an upset.
I don't want to be a downer, but let's be realistic. The moods among the various generations in the US will be decisive for the outcome of this vote, and there are tendencies showing that Obama will be facing a great challenge in regards to the so called Y-Generation. Surveys among the young voters indicate that they are not as enthusiastic about politics in general and voting in particular, as they used to be 4 years ago when they invested a lot of hope in Obama. Now many of them are disappointed with the deteriorated financial environment and there is a risk that they would want to punish him - not necessarily by voting for Romney (which is highly unlikely), but by just skipping this election and not turning up to the polls. What's more, the republicans still have some momentum from the 2010 House elections, when their success was largely thanks to the mobilisation of the older voters. If republicans manage to channel this anger energy, Obama would really be in trouble.
What's more, Internet will no longer be the sole domain of the democrats any more. It seems that unlike the youth, people from the so called Silent Generation, who have always been prone to voting more conservatively, are more interested in the coming election than they were 4 years ago (when many of them probably didn't vote because they were certain that Obama would win anyway). Besides, older Americans from this generation are now doing much better with Internet technologies, they use the social networks, etc. Surveys show that more than 50% of Americans over 65 now regularly use the Internet. So, preparing a strong online campaign wouldn't only reach the younger voters, it would also reach the older. Therefore the activeness of the republicans around the social networks, although a little delayed, is not to be underestimated. Firstly because they can reach their hardcore followers in one more way and mobilise them even more against Obama, and secondly because they could try to recruit some of those youngsters who are most disillusioned with the president's policies. And there is no lack of those.
No doubt the economy is the single most important issue for all generations, and it will largely decide the outcome of the vote. Next on the list are unemployment, health care, the job market. Foreign policy ranks much further down the list, including with the youth. It is normal that Americans would be focused on America right now, at a time of crisis. The war in Afghanistan is not regarded as important as it used to be, and Iraq is again that distant place beyond many seas that hardly anyone cares about. This is normal.
Of course, Obama has his advantages in the battle for the votes of Generation Y. Firstly, the fact that the youth were not very affected by the subprime mortgage crisis. At least not as severely affected as the generation of their parents. But on the other side, now when they are at the entrance to their independent life, after graduating high school or college, they will have to plunge head on, and face serious problems like unemployment, student loans, expensive high education and all the difficulties with finding a home.
The republicans have one strong card in their deck, which they could use to try to win the votes of Generation Y, and it is the fact that these youngsters are facing all of these problems for the first time exactly during Obama's tenure. So his term will partly be associated with the deteriorated economic situation, no matter if he is to blame for it or not. This reality, combined with the aggressive rhetoric of the republicans, could attract a lot of angry young people to the conservative side.
There are also other potential dangers for Obama in the way of life of all generations, because the deteriorating living standard overall and the widening gap between the middle class and the wealthiest could affect the moods immediately before the vote. There are an increasing number of multigeneration families in the US, and there are several factors for this. The recession is forcing many families to share a household; more and more young people are postponing the moment of settling down and making a family of their own (because of the economic hardships and because making a career becomes an increasing priority); the influx of immigrants also contributes to the increase of multigeneration families, etc.
Those who were born after WW2, the famous Baby-Boomers, are also in an interesting situation. Now they are turning into something like the Sandwich Generation, because they are squeezed between their parents who are now retired, and their children who are facing enormous difficulties with becoming economically independent. The baby-boomers themselves are extremely concerned about their own finances and they are doing their best to postpone retirement.
If previously the common wisdom was that a person ought to become financially independent at 20 years of age, now most Americans think the more suitable age is somewhere around 25. So there is a new phenomenon forming among the American youth, called "delayed adulthood". And also the "helicopter parents", who continue circling over their children even after they have finished college and have got a job. There are cases when the parents of a young job candidate who has been rejected on an interview, would call at the company and demand explanation from the management why their son or daughter has been dismissed.
The only enemy of the republicans at this point could be Mitt Romney himself. If the youth, no matter how angry with the too slow recovery under Obama, still fail to find inspiration in the republican candidate, and to recognise a viable alternative to the current president, they would either hold their nose and still vote Obama, or more likely just ignore the polls. Which is the republicans' chance to cause an upset.
