Back to Tahrir
Jul. 3rd, 2011 02:01 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
nairiporterAfter the heated Arab spring in Egypt follows an even hotter summer. Almost half a year after Mubarak fell the country looks more restless than ever. The political life there is boiling, new parties and alliances keep popping up. The Egyptian society is slowly getting polarized along various lines. The democratic youth is on one side, the Muslim Brotherhood and the traditionally ultra-conservative Salafis on the other, and the ones related to the old regime on another. And on top of all this boiling cauldron is the military council, facing unrest and discontent from all sides. And not hurrying to relinquish the grip on power like it promised.
The military junta is in charge. Because practically that is what it is. Initially greeted with enthusiasm, but then with rising suspicions about its intentions. Now it generates outright discontent. Many young people have no doubt that those close to Mubarak (the older military apparatchiks) are incapable of bringing the democratic change for which so many protesters put their life on the line, and some lost it.
Of course John McCain who lead the talks with the Egyptian generals from the US side, said that the military council is "looking forward" to hand over power to the newly elected government, whichever it may be. But it is logical to assume that, once they have taken all the power, the military would not give it up so easily. Probably they will officially withdraw from it, but leaving some good levers behind which they could use even after the election. So, some things about the Egyptian political system will certainly remain intact.
The Tahrir square has become arena of new clashes between the young protesters and the security forces. The revolution is not over. The trigger for these clashes has not become clear even to this day. It probably doesn't matter, the more important thing is that the public disconent with the slow reforms and the umbrella over certain representatives of the old regime had to be vented out.
For instance Mubarak now lives in a luxurious hospital in the posh resort Sharm. And the court hearing against him was postponed for August. His lawyer says Mubarak has advanced cancer and is very sick. The argument: because of the extent of the disease he could not be moved to a prison hospital. But it remains unclear how come the previous expertise of the ministry of health had not found any symptoms of the disease. This reeks very much of the case with Megrahi, the Lockerbie bomber who was released by Britain and handed over to Libya last year because he was supposed to be on his death bed, but he never died, and is alive and well. That scandalous decision also reeked of a back-stage deal for political and trade gains.
But Mubarak is just the tip of the iceberg. Court cases against former regime members are being held everywhere. A key case against the scariest figure of the regime, Habib al Adly (charges of bombing Coptic churches in Alexandria) remains unstarted. On top of that, judges who are known for their corruption are not only not sacked, but on the contrary - they are given the key cases against former regime members! The policemen responsible for 850 deaths during the protests remain unpunished and are now blackmailing the families of the victims to drop the charges. Add this: the prime minister Sharaf asked the military to sack 7 ministers who were not "implementing the goals of the revolution fast enough"... and he got a rejection.
Another question dividing the Egyptians is whether the constitution should be changed or first parliamentary elections should be held and only then a new law of the land should be crafted. But the election was postponed from June to September, and there are both winners and losers from this. There are several reasons why this vote was postponed. Firstly, if there are elections so soon after the fall of the previous regime, Egypt could end up being ruled by the same people, only with a different party name. Secondly, early elections would give vast advantage to the Islamists and above all the Muslim Brotherhood who has a very tightly organized network and hardcore followers. Thirdly, and maybe most important, a new election system is needed first. So far all elections from the Mubarak era were merely formal, and included vast falsifications, voting with more than one ballot, etc. But despite all that, the discussions about the new election law remain intransparent and are causing suspicions. And this could postpone the elections even beyond September.
Granted, the military has dissolved the parliament and some constitutional amendments were approved by referendum. But these changes include only limiting the powers of the president (the country does not have one at the moment) and some changes in the election law (and there could be no elections in sight). So, practically the entire power is now in the hands of the military council. The former Arab League chairman Amr Moussa called for his fellow Egyptians to boycott this farce, and Mohammed el Baradei was even more direct: "Having a referendum while lacking law and order is irresponsible".
Something is telling me that as soon as the protests stop, the Muslim Brotherhood will take over.
The military junta is in charge. Because practically that is what it is. Initially greeted with enthusiasm, but then with rising suspicions about its intentions. Now it generates outright discontent. Many young people have no doubt that those close to Mubarak (the older military apparatchiks) are incapable of bringing the democratic change for which so many protesters put their life on the line, and some lost it.
Of course John McCain who lead the talks with the Egyptian generals from the US side, said that the military council is "looking forward" to hand over power to the newly elected government, whichever it may be. But it is logical to assume that, once they have taken all the power, the military would not give it up so easily. Probably they will officially withdraw from it, but leaving some good levers behind which they could use even after the election. So, some things about the Egyptian political system will certainly remain intact.
The Tahrir square has become arena of new clashes between the young protesters and the security forces. The revolution is not over. The trigger for these clashes has not become clear even to this day. It probably doesn't matter, the more important thing is that the public disconent with the slow reforms and the umbrella over certain representatives of the old regime had to be vented out.
For instance Mubarak now lives in a luxurious hospital in the posh resort Sharm. And the court hearing against him was postponed for August. His lawyer says Mubarak has advanced cancer and is very sick. The argument: because of the extent of the disease he could not be moved to a prison hospital. But it remains unclear how come the previous expertise of the ministry of health had not found any symptoms of the disease. This reeks very much of the case with Megrahi, the Lockerbie bomber who was released by Britain and handed over to Libya last year because he was supposed to be on his death bed, but he never died, and is alive and well. That scandalous decision also reeked of a back-stage deal for political and trade gains.
But Mubarak is just the tip of the iceberg. Court cases against former regime members are being held everywhere. A key case against the scariest figure of the regime, Habib al Adly (charges of bombing Coptic churches in Alexandria) remains unstarted. On top of that, judges who are known for their corruption are not only not sacked, but on the contrary - they are given the key cases against former regime members! The policemen responsible for 850 deaths during the protests remain unpunished and are now blackmailing the families of the victims to drop the charges. Add this: the prime minister Sharaf asked the military to sack 7 ministers who were not "implementing the goals of the revolution fast enough"... and he got a rejection.
Another question dividing the Egyptians is whether the constitution should be changed or first parliamentary elections should be held and only then a new law of the land should be crafted. But the election was postponed from June to September, and there are both winners and losers from this. There are several reasons why this vote was postponed. Firstly, if there are elections so soon after the fall of the previous regime, Egypt could end up being ruled by the same people, only with a different party name. Secondly, early elections would give vast advantage to the Islamists and above all the Muslim Brotherhood who has a very tightly organized network and hardcore followers. Thirdly, and maybe most important, a new election system is needed first. So far all elections from the Mubarak era were merely formal, and included vast falsifications, voting with more than one ballot, etc. But despite all that, the discussions about the new election law remain intransparent and are causing suspicions. And this could postpone the elections even beyond September.
Granted, the military has dissolved the parliament and some constitutional amendments were approved by referendum. But these changes include only limiting the powers of the president (the country does not have one at the moment) and some changes in the election law (and there could be no elections in sight). So, practically the entire power is now in the hands of the military council. The former Arab League chairman Amr Moussa called for his fellow Egyptians to boycott this farce, and Mohammed el Baradei was even more direct: "Having a referendum while lacking law and order is irresponsible".
Something is telling me that as soon as the protests stop, the Muslim Brotherhood will take over.
