Post-victory, pre-normalisation
Feb. 23rd, 2014 09:08 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
nairiporterThe Ukrainian parliament Verkhovna Rada has voted for the deposition of president Yanukovych and set the date for new elections on May 25. Naturally, a speaker of the president has instantly announced that he rejects this decision as illegitimate. Still, the vote for Yanukovych's impeachment was supported by 328 out of 450 MPs, who reportedly met the result with standing ovations and sang the national anthem. Earlier yesterday, the MPs elected Alexander Turchinov speaker of the Rada, who's considered a close ally to Yulia Tymoshenko. Another ally of hers, Arsen Avakov was appointed interim minister of the interior.
The Rada also chose for minister of defense the former chief of the joint chiefs of staff of the Ukrainian military, Vladimir Zamana. A few days ago he had been sacked by Yanukovych because he had said the army would not intervene in the internal conflict. A similar statement was made by the current chief, Yuri Ilin. He said the army would preserve neutrality, and "serve the Ukrainian people honestly", and would not follow criminal orders. This may have ultimately sealed the fate of the regime.
The opposition leaders claim to have taken effective control of Kiev, Yanukovych has fled to Kharkov, a city next to the Russian border where he enjoys a lot of support. In a TV address he called these events "a coup", insisting that he is still the legally elected president. He compared the opposition's actions to the way Hitler came to power in the 30s, and declared the actions of the parliament "illegitimate", claiming that MPs of his party had been "beaten with stones and threatened". Still, he admitted some "had left" his party, and didn't forget to call them "traitors". He also confirmed that he had no intention to resign, and neither leave the country.
Earlier yesterday, pro-Russian political leaders from the Russian-dominated Eastern Ukraine declared in Kharkov that they were seizing control over that part of the country, "until the constitutional order is restored". There were not only politicians from Southern and Eastern Ukraine at that separatist/restoration summit, but also Russian politicians, as well as the governors of the four Russian districts adjacent to Ukraine.
Meanwhile it transpired that Yulia Tymoshenko had been freed from the jail/hospital in Kharkov, where she was being held under guard. She had been sentenced to 7 years in jail back in 2011, on charges of abuse of power. A BBC correspondent reported that she was driven off in a car, possibly in a Kiev direction, since the Rada voted her release on Friday. Her supporters continue to insist that her trial was politically motivated, since Tymoshenko was a staunch opponent to Yanukovych (along with former president Yushchenko). Her release was a key condition of the EU for continuing the EU-membership negotiations, as well as one of the main demands of the protesters.
What is now happening in Ukraine very much resembles the classic scenario of the collapse of a dictatorial regime. Apart from Yanukovych who seems to have escaped detention at the airport (after some shooting exchange involving his personal guard), his minister of the interior, Vitaly Zakharchenko also tried to flee. MPs from his Party of the Regions are being stopped at the Kiev airport by volunteer vigilantes and returned to the capital. It seems that among the few who have successfully fled are the governor of the Kharkov district Mikhail Dobkin) and the Kharkiv mayor (Gennady Kernes), who've both fled the Yanukovych stronghold, to seek refuge in Russia.
The footage of thousands of Ukrainians lining up to visit the now deserted Yanukovych presidential residence (now mockingly dubbed "Ukrainian Disneyland"), and gape in awe before his gem-encrusted golf sticks and his toilets with gold legs, also resemble the scenes from many other countries from Eastern Europe, Asia, Africa and Latin America, after the fall of similar regimes. The pictures and stories about a real emperor's palace could turn out important for the future of an Ukrainian nation where shocking opulence at the background of staggering misery is a topic that could unite all Ukrainians, regardless of their ethnicity and place of residence. The insolent wastefulness of an arrogant elite that was piling riches at the back of a desperate nation, and an economy in free-fall - if that doesn't cause a lot of anger in both Ukrainian-Ukrainians and Russia-Ukrainians alike, I don't know what would.
And of course the unity of the Ukrainian nation is now becoming the most important issue on the country's agenda, because the bloody episode surrounding Yanukovych's downfall is already history. There are signs that Eastern Ukraine, where the bulk of the Russian population lives, and where the Party of the Regions was drawing its power from, will respond promptly to the events in Kiev. The darkest scenario is that under Moscow's pressure and the public moods in those regions, half of the country will secede from the rest of Ukraine. Although that scenario may look somewhat less likely today, it still hasn't gone away.
Firstly, on the Kharkov summit, the representatives of those regions assured the public that they had no intention to do such a thing. On the contrary, even Dobkin and Kernes themselves announced that preserving Ukraine's territorial integrity was of paramount importance. The fact that they left the country soon thereafter, shows that even if they had been considering such an option, they must have failed to receive the support they had been hoping for.
Secondly, the speed with which the whole structure around Yanukovych crumbled, speaks that the Ukrainians are learning more and more of the corrupt nature of his rule, and the rapid enrichment of his son and some of his other cronies is something that cannot possibly help any serious future political campaign on their part.
And thirdly, as strong as their links to Russia may be, there are hardly many rulers and major businessmen in the eastern Ukrainian regions who would want to be directly subjected to Moscow. With one notable exception: Crimea, where the Russian population is really dominant. The peninsula is considered of a key strategic importance for the Russian geopolitical interests, the Russian Black Sea fleet is hosted at Sevastopol, and Russia has even issued Russian passports for the local residents, and all in all, the peninsula is considered Russia's stronghold in Ukraine, a country within a country.
The two Ukraines. Note the dark-red spots: Crimea (south) and Transnistria (south-west)
What's more, Russia's role itself is yet to be fully determined. After they joined the EU at the negotiation table involving Yanukovych and the opposition, where an agreement was reached that prompted the president to flee, the Russians have seemed rather surprised and angry with the new developments.
But let's not fool ourselves. Russia's influence in Ukraine will not disappear with Yanukovych's departure. The two countries are connected with much more than just their shared gas supply grid. This became evident with the very first statements of the Russian ministry of finance, which announced that they are yet to review their plans of unfreezing the purchase of Ukrainian state bonds worth $ 2 billion. It was frozen last week, and was part of the aid package of $ 15 billion that had been agreed between Putin and Yanukovych, and was considered to be Russia's tool of drawing Ukraine into its Eurasian Union.
The money from Russia could be substituted by the loans coming from the IMF, but in this case the tone of the ministry of finance was more important, and this time it was different from that of last Saturday when the Russians were urging to wait for the formation of a new Ukrainian government. After all, Russia must be well aware of the public polls, and know that even if the EU offers Ukraine membership today (which in reality looks like a distant prospect), the Ukrainians would be far from unanimous on the proposal.
The door to Ukraine's future now seems wide open. But after the initial optimism, the sobering up will come soon, and it won't be a pleasant experience. A lot of blood has been spilled on the streets, and someone will have to bear responsibility for it. The number of people killed may have exceeded 100 at this point. There are citizen patrols roaming Kiev along with the police, and the situation will have to slowly get back to normal. And not least important, there are elections looming, with all the tricky situations that come with that.
The primary candidates for now are Yulia Tymoshenko and boxing champion Vitali Klitschko. The latter is an intriguing figure, he has gained much from his staunch opposition to the regime from the last few months, but he is not universally popular across Ukraine, and he has little to no support in the eastern regions. Anyone who has caught a glimpse of his appearances around the streets and squares would know that Klitschko lacks the instincts and skills of a seasoned politician, and neither can he boast of a particularly impressive charisma. And the Ukrainians are desperate to rally around a uniting figure right now.
Meanwhile, charisma doesn't seem to be a problem for Tymoshenko, the Gas Princess. But on the downside, she carries a lot of negative baggage with herself, and allegations of corruption and nepotism, and a legacy of a failed experiment of the post-Orange-Revolution government. She used to be prime minister at a time of deep crisis, and her government was marked by scandals, and was known for its incompetence. In fact that was the reason why Yanukovych returned to power in the first place - because people got fed up with Tymoshenko/Yushchenko.
Today Ukraine's future may look a bit less grim than a few days ago, granted. But this is the second time that the Ukrainians have gotten rid of Yanukovych (this time probably for good, since all of his political credit seems to have been irretrievably spent). The difference now is that this time it happened with blood instead of just orange flags and a peaceful revolution. And there is no guarantee that the political model would go away along with the president. It could all end up in a cosmetic change at the tops, while the same figures in the background would likely remain intact. And let's not forget that Russia is not going anywhere, and neither are the millions of ethnic Russians living in the dynamic, industrialised, superiorly developed Ukrainian South/East. The next days and weeks are of enormous importance, they will determine whether Ukraine will capitalise on the second chance it has earned itself, or it will finally slide down into complete dismantling mode.
The Rada also chose for minister of defense the former chief of the joint chiefs of staff of the Ukrainian military, Vladimir Zamana. A few days ago he had been sacked by Yanukovych because he had said the army would not intervene in the internal conflict. A similar statement was made by the current chief, Yuri Ilin. He said the army would preserve neutrality, and "serve the Ukrainian people honestly", and would not follow criminal orders. This may have ultimately sealed the fate of the regime.
The opposition leaders claim to have taken effective control of Kiev, Yanukovych has fled to Kharkov, a city next to the Russian border where he enjoys a lot of support. In a TV address he called these events "a coup", insisting that he is still the legally elected president. He compared the opposition's actions to the way Hitler came to power in the 30s, and declared the actions of the parliament "illegitimate", claiming that MPs of his party had been "beaten with stones and threatened". Still, he admitted some "had left" his party, and didn't forget to call them "traitors". He also confirmed that he had no intention to resign, and neither leave the country.
Earlier yesterday, pro-Russian political leaders from the Russian-dominated Eastern Ukraine declared in Kharkov that they were seizing control over that part of the country, "until the constitutional order is restored". There were not only politicians from Southern and Eastern Ukraine at that separatist/restoration summit, but also Russian politicians, as well as the governors of the four Russian districts adjacent to Ukraine.
Meanwhile it transpired that Yulia Tymoshenko had been freed from the jail/hospital in Kharkov, where she was being held under guard. She had been sentenced to 7 years in jail back in 2011, on charges of abuse of power. A BBC correspondent reported that she was driven off in a car, possibly in a Kiev direction, since the Rada voted her release on Friday. Her supporters continue to insist that her trial was politically motivated, since Tymoshenko was a staunch opponent to Yanukovych (along with former president Yushchenko). Her release was a key condition of the EU for continuing the EU-membership negotiations, as well as one of the main demands of the protesters.
What is now happening in Ukraine very much resembles the classic scenario of the collapse of a dictatorial regime. Apart from Yanukovych who seems to have escaped detention at the airport (after some shooting exchange involving his personal guard), his minister of the interior, Vitaly Zakharchenko also tried to flee. MPs from his Party of the Regions are being stopped at the Kiev airport by volunteer vigilantes and returned to the capital. It seems that among the few who have successfully fled are the governor of the Kharkov district Mikhail Dobkin) and the Kharkiv mayor (Gennady Kernes), who've both fled the Yanukovych stronghold, to seek refuge in Russia.
The footage of thousands of Ukrainians lining up to visit the now deserted Yanukovych presidential residence (now mockingly dubbed "Ukrainian Disneyland"), and gape in awe before his gem-encrusted golf sticks and his toilets with gold legs, also resemble the scenes from many other countries from Eastern Europe, Asia, Africa and Latin America, after the fall of similar regimes. The pictures and stories about a real emperor's palace could turn out important for the future of an Ukrainian nation where shocking opulence at the background of staggering misery is a topic that could unite all Ukrainians, regardless of their ethnicity and place of residence. The insolent wastefulness of an arrogant elite that was piling riches at the back of a desperate nation, and an economy in free-fall - if that doesn't cause a lot of anger in both Ukrainian-Ukrainians and Russia-Ukrainians alike, I don't know what would.
And of course the unity of the Ukrainian nation is now becoming the most important issue on the country's agenda, because the bloody episode surrounding Yanukovych's downfall is already history. There are signs that Eastern Ukraine, where the bulk of the Russian population lives, and where the Party of the Regions was drawing its power from, will respond promptly to the events in Kiev. The darkest scenario is that under Moscow's pressure and the public moods in those regions, half of the country will secede from the rest of Ukraine. Although that scenario may look somewhat less likely today, it still hasn't gone away.
Firstly, on the Kharkov summit, the representatives of those regions assured the public that they had no intention to do such a thing. On the contrary, even Dobkin and Kernes themselves announced that preserving Ukraine's territorial integrity was of paramount importance. The fact that they left the country soon thereafter, shows that even if they had been considering such an option, they must have failed to receive the support they had been hoping for.
Secondly, the speed with which the whole structure around Yanukovych crumbled, speaks that the Ukrainians are learning more and more of the corrupt nature of his rule, and the rapid enrichment of his son and some of his other cronies is something that cannot possibly help any serious future political campaign on their part.
And thirdly, as strong as their links to Russia may be, there are hardly many rulers and major businessmen in the eastern Ukrainian regions who would want to be directly subjected to Moscow. With one notable exception: Crimea, where the Russian population is really dominant. The peninsula is considered of a key strategic importance for the Russian geopolitical interests, the Russian Black Sea fleet is hosted at Sevastopol, and Russia has even issued Russian passports for the local residents, and all in all, the peninsula is considered Russia's stronghold in Ukraine, a country within a country.
The two Ukraines. Note the dark-red spots: Crimea (south) and Transnistria (south-west)
What's more, Russia's role itself is yet to be fully determined. After they joined the EU at the negotiation table involving Yanukovych and the opposition, where an agreement was reached that prompted the president to flee, the Russians have seemed rather surprised and angry with the new developments.
But let's not fool ourselves. Russia's influence in Ukraine will not disappear with Yanukovych's departure. The two countries are connected with much more than just their shared gas supply grid. This became evident with the very first statements of the Russian ministry of finance, which announced that they are yet to review their plans of unfreezing the purchase of Ukrainian state bonds worth $ 2 billion. It was frozen last week, and was part of the aid package of $ 15 billion that had been agreed between Putin and Yanukovych, and was considered to be Russia's tool of drawing Ukraine into its Eurasian Union.
The money from Russia could be substituted by the loans coming from the IMF, but in this case the tone of the ministry of finance was more important, and this time it was different from that of last Saturday when the Russians were urging to wait for the formation of a new Ukrainian government. After all, Russia must be well aware of the public polls, and know that even if the EU offers Ukraine membership today (which in reality looks like a distant prospect), the Ukrainians would be far from unanimous on the proposal.
The door to Ukraine's future now seems wide open. But after the initial optimism, the sobering up will come soon, and it won't be a pleasant experience. A lot of blood has been spilled on the streets, and someone will have to bear responsibility for it. The number of people killed may have exceeded 100 at this point. There are citizen patrols roaming Kiev along with the police, and the situation will have to slowly get back to normal. And not least important, there are elections looming, with all the tricky situations that come with that.
The primary candidates for now are Yulia Tymoshenko and boxing champion Vitali Klitschko. The latter is an intriguing figure, he has gained much from his staunch opposition to the regime from the last few months, but he is not universally popular across Ukraine, and he has little to no support in the eastern regions. Anyone who has caught a glimpse of his appearances around the streets and squares would know that Klitschko lacks the instincts and skills of a seasoned politician, and neither can he boast of a particularly impressive charisma. And the Ukrainians are desperate to rally around a uniting figure right now.
Meanwhile, charisma doesn't seem to be a problem for Tymoshenko, the Gas Princess. But on the downside, she carries a lot of negative baggage with herself, and allegations of corruption and nepotism, and a legacy of a failed experiment of the post-Orange-Revolution government. She used to be prime minister at a time of deep crisis, and her government was marked by scandals, and was known for its incompetence. In fact that was the reason why Yanukovych returned to power in the first place - because people got fed up with Tymoshenko/Yushchenko.
Today Ukraine's future may look a bit less grim than a few days ago, granted. But this is the second time that the Ukrainians have gotten rid of Yanukovych (this time probably for good, since all of his political credit seems to have been irretrievably spent). The difference now is that this time it happened with blood instead of just orange flags and a peaceful revolution. And there is no guarantee that the political model would go away along with the president. It could all end up in a cosmetic change at the tops, while the same figures in the background would likely remain intact. And let's not forget that Russia is not going anywhere, and neither are the millions of ethnic Russians living in the dynamic, industrialised, superiorly developed Ukrainian South/East. The next days and weeks are of enormous importance, they will determine whether Ukraine will capitalise on the second chance it has earned itself, or it will finally slide down into complete dismantling mode.
